good morning. it is election day, tuesday, november 6th, 2012. welcome to "cbs this morning." after nearly two years of campaigning and two billion dollars spent, it is time for america to choose its next president. >> polls show the two candidates in a dead heat. we'll talk with both sides and go live to the key battleground states. and how will superstorm sandy affect the election as new york and new jersey brace for another big storm tomorrow? >> but we begin this morning with a look at today's eye opener. your world in 90 seconds. >> we're one day away if a fresh start.

one day away from the first day of a new beginning. >> it all comes down to you. it's out of my hands now. it's in yours. all of it depends on what you do. >> polls open as america picks a president. >> new hampshire. the first in the nation to cast their ballots. >> this has never happened before in dixville. we have a tie. >> this race is close. >> ohio is the battleground of all the battleground states. >> it's coming down to one thing, turnout. which side gets their voters to the polls. >> all of a sudden, pennsylvania. mitt romney on election day will visit pittsburgh. >> you see pennsylvania turning red, it's over. >> we're not taking anything for granted. pennsylvania has tightened, absolutely. >> if you have a single working class female suburban undecided voter in your home, cover her with plywood. >> folks impacted by hurricane sandy say they are too worried

about surviving to vote. >> you got to be kidding me. >> a nor'easter is headed to the state of florida on wednesday. it's expected to hit nework and new jersey. >> new orleans wins at home. philadelphia needed a win. didn't get it. >> are your hometown chicago bears good enough to win the super bowl? >> yes, they are. >> you have a favorite team? >> the patriots, and i take personal full responsibility for their two super bowl wins. >> is it true you did some shows with no audience last week? >> yes. >> what was that like? >> about like tonight. >> and all that matters. >> it's a couple hours off from work tomorrow. >> on "cbs this morning." >> did you go to the polls and vote yet? >> yes. >> was it exciting? >> it was a blast. captioning funded by cbs welcome to "cbs this

morning." this is the day when voters choose the next president of the united states. the traditional first votes have already been counted in new hampshire in the tiny village of dixville notch. president obama got five votes and governor mitt romney got five. and the outcome is expected to be just as close nationwide. >> that's right. three new polls of likely voters have just come out. one of them has romney leading by one point. another one shows a tie. and the third has the president leading by three points. this morning, our correspondents are all across the country. they are covering the presidential race. the other important races and the impact of superstorm sandy on election day. >> governor romney made a surprise announcement monday his campaign is not over. he'll be making two last-minute stops today. >> that's right. jan crawford is in belmont, massachusetts, the republican candidate's hometown. jan, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. governor romney and his wife ann will be here in this polling place behind me later this morning about 8:30 to vote. and romney is off to the campaign trail.

he's got stops in cleveland and then in pittsburgh. ohio, of course, a state he really needs to win, and pennsylvania, that's one we thought was safe for the president, but now with these polls tightening, the campaign believes their message is resonating there and they're hoping it is in those other must-win states. >> thank you so very much. let's win this one tomorrow. >> reporter: bolstered monday at every campaign stop by crowds in the thousands, romney the day before the election hammered home his message of change. >> tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow. god bless each of you. god bless ohio. >> rorter: underscoring its importance, he stopped twice in two days to ohio. he'll return today in a state that romney has struggled to nail down and he'll head to a state once considered safe for the president, pennsylvania, as he looks for a safeguard if he loses other battleground states. >> this is fabulous.

>> reporter: romney also campaigned monday in florida, virginia, and new hampshire, appearing confident despite most swing state polls showing him tied or behind. in an interview during "monday night football," romney was relaxed and even joked about how as massachusetts governor, he delivered big for new england patriots fans. >> i take personal full responsibility for their two super bowl wins. as a governor, you get blamed for everything that goes wrong. you might as well get the credit for what goes right. >> reporter: romney and his supporters will spend tonight at the boston convention center. i talked to a top campaign aide, he said they were feeling confident. they like what they're seeing in their internal polls. now it's just all about which of these candidates' supporters are most intense and most enthusiastic and how many of them are going to turn out to vote today. >> jan crawford, thank you. president obama made his last campaign stops monday in wisconsin, ohio, and iowa. and after his final rally in des moines, the president spent the night in his hometown of

chicago. nancy is there. good morning. >> reporter: the president is waking up in his own townhouse th morning, and unlike governor romney, he is staying put. no campaign stops. he'll play a traditional pickup basketball game with friends and aides, maybe drop by obama campaign headquarters to thank all of his staffers and volunteers. then tonight he will head to this convention center for what he hopes will be a victory party. on a clear, chilly night, president obama joined 20,000 supporters at the same corner in downtown des moines where he opened a small campaign office back in 2007. >> sometimes it's been hard. sometimes it's been frustrating. >> reporter: it was his 101st rally of this campaign season. capping a day spent jamming with jay-z and bruce springsteen, and dialing voters and volunteers in

ohio. like romney, he dropped in for a quick interview with espn that aired during "monday night football." >> the key is to just stay focused on what it is that you're doing. >> reporter: in des moines, the first lady made her own closing pitch for her husband's re-election. >> we have seen an honest man who knows the facts and always gives it to us straight. >> reporter: and mr. obama teared up, whether from emotion or the cold, as he reminisced about his first improbable victory in the iowa caucuses that propelled him to the presidency and he asked voters for four more years to finish what he started. >> after all the rallies, after the millions of dollars of ads, it all comes down to you. it's out of my hands now. it's in yours. >> reporter: vice president joe biden is voting in his home state of delaware this morning. the president cast his ballot a week and a half ago here in chicago. and early voting has really been

key to the obama campaign strategy. they are leading in the early vote in almost every battleground state that has early voting, but republicans typically turn out in greater numbers on election day, so the big question we'll be watching all day today is will those early obama leads hold. >> thank you. john dickerson is with us. good morning. what should we be looking for as we watch these returns come in? >> i want to know what the shape of the electorate looks like this time around. last time, president obama, he won 43% of the white vote. well, what share does he get this time? the white vote has been decreasing every year since 1992. will that be the case again? if that's the case, then does the president get re-elected with a new kind of presidential majority, or does governor romney get elected with something that looks more like the electorates looked in elections before 2008, 2004, and 2000? >> we're showing these screens of what time the polls close.

ohio 7:30. pennsylvania at 8:00. will we have a sense abo how this race is going? >> virginia will tell us about the rural versus urban vote. and we'll look at the strength in the counties, the suburban counties. so fairfax county in northern virginia. the president needs to do very, very well there. so if you see him running up his margins, it means he can turn out his suburban vote. in richmond, you look to see if the president can turn african-americans. then you look to the rural counties to see if governor romney is getting a big uptick in those voters who did not really turn out for jn mccain. so is the base coming home for governor romney. we'll be looking at places look virginia, prince william county, a swing county, we'll look to see who's winning those place where is it's been tight. >> we see now vice president joe biden along with dr. jill biden, these are live pictures of them voting if greenville, delaware. it appears the vice president is waiting in line just like

everybody else. he doesn't get to cut the line. delaware not a swing state. but what about -- we see so many people in lines today. how much of the early vote matters? i've been looking at these numbers. it's stunning to see how many people have already voted. >> strategists were able to call the race in 2008 several days before. the election may be already over and we don't know it until the votes are counted. but because people have already voted early. >> as always, turnout is crucial. >> turnout has been crucial for three weeks. in other words, in colorado, nevada, north carolina, it may have been crucial before today, but on election day, as nancy mentioned in her piece, republicans have to turn their base out. >> stay with us, we'll be speaking with both campaigns this morning. we begin with david axelrod. david, good morning. >> good morning, charlie. happy election day. >> well, thank you. happy election day to you and everybody else in the great state of illinois. so tell me what it is that's most crucial today for you to win. >> well, you've been using the

word, which is turnout. we've been expecting a close election for a year and a half. we've built a tremendous organization. we've got 200,000 or more election shifts volunteers set up. we've got 5,000 stations in neighborhoods across the battleground states. and now it's time to turn out that vote. and that's what this election is going to be about. we are happy about those early vote numbers. those early vote numbers are very significant. we go in with a great advantage. >> one thing the republicans keep talking about is the enthusiasm for governor romney as he crisscrosses the country. that's the one thing they think suggests a good day for them. >> well, you know, charlie, first of all, i've been traveling with the president for the last four days and we've been met with huge crowds, enthusiastic crowds wherever we go. and i take some encouragement from that. but the greater encouragement comes from the cold hard data, which is that early vote in

every battleground state that has an early vote, has been very robust and very much in our favor. and the polling has been very much in our favor. it's going to be a narrow race, but we're even or ahead in almost every one of these -- in really every one of these battle ground states. i'm going to look at the data and now we need to make sure our people come out and vote. >> david, you talk about the data being encouraging. one of the things we look at is the size of the electorate, the makeup of the electorate. do you think the minority vote will be bigger than it was in 2008? >> well, it may well be because that's been the nature of our country's voting patterns for the last 20 years. you've seen that portion of the electorate grow. but i also -- i heard john mention white votes and he's going to be looking at white

votes. the president got 43% of that vote last time, which was more than the two previous democratic nominees, and he's going to do very well with that vote tonight. we think we're going to hit our targets across all the cohorts, because people fundamentally want a president who has in his sights the middle class and how we build an economy that works for the middle class, and they believe in this president's commitment to do that and his ability to do it. >> karl rove used to talk about building a new republican majority. in the context of this conversation, are we looking at a new democratic majority? a different voter group that are coming together to be the majority in america? >> what i will say is this. the president i think reflects the president itself. this is a big, diverse country. our coalition is very broad. the republican coalition is very narrow. they've shut out latinos.

they've shunned women on issues of women's health. and i think they're paying a price for it in this election. so i'm not going to make -- karl ended up regretting making grandiose predictions and i'm not going to make grandiose prediction here's, but i will say that anyone who wants to win a national election ought to speak to the concerns of the entire nation. this president does and he's going to win tonight. >> david axelrod, good to see you. thank you. >> okay, great to see you guys. >> now let's go to kevin madden, senior adviser to the romney campaign. good morning. >> good morning. great to be with you. thanks for having me. >> it is election day and the governor is making two more stops today in ohio, in pennsylvania. is that a sign that the governor is worried about election day, that he has to go to pennsylvania to enlargen the map, the state that has gone blue for a while? >> no, it's a sign that the governor is going to work very hard all the way until the polls close to get his message out and to also thank all the volunteers that have fanned out across the

country right now to help him get his message out to voters. if you know the governor like i do, and i've been working with him now for about six years, he's not somebody to sit around on election day. he's not somebody to sit around until the job is done. so i expect that we'll have a great day today going out and carrying the message to ohio, and pennsylvania, like you said, which is a state that the democrats thought they had locked down long ago. we're very confident that it can actually be a part of our ele electoral coalition. >> if pennsylvania was so important, why not make it a state that he made a play for throughout the campaign? >> you have to go when it matters. i think in the last few weeks, we've seen pennsylvania -- the polls there tighten. and it became a tremendous opportunity. i think it's going to be part of 270 and beyond if we continue to do what we've been doing this last few weeks, which is getting out the message that the governor has a better course for america when it comes to fixing

the kpi and putting the country back on track and i think that it's going to be really important part of our efforts to turn out many swing voters in those key areas around that state so that we can win it tonight. >> and republicans, no doubt, are energized this electorate. if you look at the battleground states in the early vote, the democrats are ahead in terms of the early vote, except in the state of colorado, where the republicans appear to be ahead there. is that a problem for governor romney if the democrats are doing better in the early vote? >> well, they're not doing as well as they had hoped to in the early vote and we've been very competitive in our early voting. i think our high propensity voters tend to come out on election day, so we feel very strongly that tonight that's going to be an important difference in winning. but nothing breeds organization like enthusiasm. and the enthusiasm that we've seen all across this country and all these key battleground states is really what's going to make the difference tonight and the really going to help make

sure that governor romney tonight becomes president elect romney. >> kevin, it's john dickerson here. i want to ask you about the minority vote. all the polls have suggested governor romney sometimes has trouble even breaking out a single digits with latinos and certainly african-american. if the governor wins tonight and gets that low a share of the minority vote, isn't that a problem for an incoming president to do so poorly among minority voters? >> john, we've done a good job taking governor romney's economic message and prosperity to minority voters. but we haven't done a perfect job. i think that's something that as a party that we have to continue to do. always look for a way to perfect our outreach. that is an important part of building a very strong republican party that's going to lead this country into the future. >> kevin madden, good to see

you. john dickerson, thank you as well. coverage anchored by scott pelley starts tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time and we'll stay on the air until we know who wins. the weather is important on election day. tomorrow, a nor'easter targets the same areas devastated by superstorm sandy. more than one million utility customers still have no power. mostly in new york and new jersey. fema says it has already spent nearly $200 million to house people who are homeless because of sandy, and temperatures fell into the 30s overnight, adding another layer of misery. david bernard, chief meteorologist of our miami affiliate cbs 4 is watching the forecast for us. david, where are the problems going to be today and tomorrow? >> well, the good news, norah, is when we look at the national weather this morning, we don't have a lot of problems. in fact, mostly, we just have a little bit of rain near chicago and a little bit of rain in north florida, but nothing that will cause any issues. let's go forward to tomorrow morning.

this is the map wednesday morning. there is the coastal storm just off of cape hatteras. now there's two trends that have happened today. by wednesday evening, it appears the track of low might be a little bit further off the coast. if that's the case, the strongest winds might stay offshore, but it's increasing the chance that we could see snow along the i-95 corridor. now, as long as that snow is not really strong and really heavy and the effects of this coastal storm might be a little bit less than we were thinking, but if we get some areas of heavy snow, then we have to worry about power outages because limbs are going to come down and that could bring down additional utility lines. we'll know later today exactly how this storm could pan out. >> all right, david

we have heard for weeks that ohio could decide the

presidential election. that state has already set records for early voting. we'll show you what both sides are doing this morning to get their remaining voters to the polls. and on this election day, both campaigns say we're going to win. >> you think that we have the enthusiasm and the wind at our back. >> someone's going to be right and someone's going to be wrong. and i think we're going to be right. >> the obama campaign's ceo gives his first ever tv interview as we go inside the campaigns, on "cbs this morning." nine days till christmas

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welcome back to "cbs this morning." brick township, new jersey, is one of the many places hard-hit by superstorm sandy. they have ordered new coastal evacuations starting tonight. >> the nor'easter in tomorrow's forecast is sure to make life harder for sandy's victims in new york and new jersey. seth doane is in staten island, new york. good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you, charlie. that storm could complicate and slow relief efforts in hard-hit areas like this one, where problems from a lack of housing to a lack of electricity could

only grow worse and worse as the storm comes. >> take the load off of this building right here. >> reporter: this houston utility crew traveled all the way to new jersey to help. thomas klesel manages these volunteers from center point energy. >> they don't have any power at this time, but within the next couple hours, they'll be happy people behind us, they'll all have lights. >> reporter: monday night, electricity was restored to many, but across new york and new jersey, more than a million homes and businesses remain without power. monday evening, new york governor andrew cuomo blasted utility companies. >> we've made progress, but the progress is unacceptable. to say that i am angry, to say that i am frustrated, disappointed would be the understatement of the decade. >> reporter: in some places, there's no power. in other places, there's simply no place to live, as cold weather sets in. more than 200,000 people in the

tristate have registered for emergency housing and disaster assistance with fema. more than $210 million has been approved. >> this is your house here? >> this is my house. >> reporter: but in staten island, this woman cannot leave her storm-ravaged home. >> how is it at night? >> freezing. there's no heat. there's nothing. fema turned me down. got no place to go. >> reporter: she waits tables for a living. but monday, she took time to meet with fema representatives again. she said she'll have to wait up to ten days to know whether she'll get two months of temporary housing paid. for now, her car is the warmest place she owns. >> everybody's complaining about electric. i wish that was the least of my worries. i wish i just didn't have power. you don't know what you got until it's gone. >> reporter: now, when it comes to long-term housing, authorities are said to be looking into everything, from hotels and motels to pre-fab

housing and even fema trail erts. >> those storm victims have never seen an election officials are working overtime to make sure everyone can vote. jim is in hoboken. good morning. >> reporter: among the many challenges produced by sandy in new york and new jersey was how to handle election day. the storm produced an enormous number of displaced voters and also trashed a number of polling sites. i want to show you what the scene looks like outside the senior center in hoboken, new jersey. look at all of that trash. that was taken out from merchandise the polling center over the weekend as they tried to get this place ready for people to be able to come and vote. now, what both new york and new jersey election officials in both states have done, said that any displaced voter can vote at any polling place. new jersey, voters can vote by

e-mail or fax, much like troops overseas can vote. we can show you some pictures from inside this polling center. just taken a little while ago. the lines are long. i just had a voter tell me it took him an hour and a half. he showed up at 6:00 in the morning when this place opened up in hoboken and he just left at 7:30. but i think as all these displaced voters would tell you, it's certainly better than not being able to vote at all. >> many political experts believe that tonight's winner will be the man who takes ohio's 18 electoral votes. president obama campaigned there on monday. governor romney is returning there later today. and this morning, dean reynolds is at the ohio state university in columbus. >> reporter: good morning, norah. the polls opened here about an hour ago and they will stay open across the state until about 7:30 eastern time tonight. but already, a 1,785,000 people

have voted early in this state, a record for any election in ohio. in the race for president, it's tighter than tight. the last poll that came out was the university of cincinnati, which showed the president up by about a point over governor romney. that's why both candidates were here in ohio yesterday. it's why governor romney will be back in the cleveland area today. and it's why a legion of volunteers have been working and will continue to work into the evening tonight to get people to the polls. ohio secretary of state john huston, a republican says he is optimistic that we will know later tonight who won this race or by early in the morning who the victor is. he says he is confident that the race in ohio will not devolve into a battle of lawyers and involve losses.

norah and charlie? two former national party chairman are with us now, former republican governor haley barbour of mississippi, and former vermont governor howard dean. can we get the two of you to agree on what will determine this election? two things that are at play, a turnout and enthusiasm. governor dean? >> well, they're connected, charlie. the enthusiasm to some degree drives turnout. the democrats also have a lot of muscle and manpower and money behind their organizational turnout. i don't say that disparagingly. but that is not as much driven by enthusiasm. enthusiasm is probably the biggest single factor in turnout. >> howard dean? >> we think we're this pretty good shape. our enthusiasm is way up. we have focused a lot of our energy and money on the ground game. not so much television as some of the super packs did and i think we're going to win. i think we're going to win in ohio. i think we have a shot in florida. i think barack obama is going to get re-elected.

>> governor barber -- >> i'm sure governor barber agrees with this, right? >> i'm trying to keep a straight face. >> governor barber, you are one of the smartest political tacticians out there. you know a lot about politics. let me ask you about where governor romney is beginning today. he's going to pennsylvania, the state that he only visited a couple of days ago, and ohio. he's going there to the cleveland area, which is northern ohio. normally a democratic stronghold. on ohio, does that suggest to you that he's underperforming in an area with noncollege educated whites which he will need in order to win ohio? >> if you suggest to me that they feel very good about the republican party for ohio, and that they have seen moves particularly throughout the month of october of swing voters, of independents, various groups that makes them think they can cut down obama's margin in cleveland and northeast ohio, as far as pennsylvania is concerned, i have thought for quite a while that pennsylvania

was available. southwest pennsylvania, coal country is very anti-obama, including union members there. the marcellus shale in northeast pennsylvania is an area of energy growth. those voters see romney as a much more pro-energy person. so the question is again, can they hold the margin in philadelphia down and expand the republican vote in northeast and southwest. i think it's a very logical play. now, whether they succeed or not, these states are close. this election is close. >> yeah, i think that haley is right about the smartness of going to cleveland. you do try to cut your opponent's margin down. where the president's got a big problem is the suburb of philadelphia. republican women are pro-choice and they have really been attacked in this campaign by the ryan-romney campaign, all the stuff about insurance companies not paying for birth control

pills and all that business. i think romney will lose in pennsylvania because republicans who might consider votie ining romney under normal circumstances are really upset about what's happened with the republican party and women and i think we're going to win in the philadelphia suburbs and that's how we're going to carry pennsylvania. >> governor dean, for both of you, you raised a point that we've been talking about this morning, which is that the composition of the electorate and what might be developing that suggests where american politics is going and the composition of the electorate. >> well, look, this is a more diverse country every year. i do think that in the long run, there will be a big debate about this. if governor romney does lose, the republicans have to change their tack on some of those issues and stick to economic issues. they haven't been able to do that in this campaign, and i think that's a big factor. >> let's look at the fact is

that african-americans are going to vote for the african-american president. according to the polls, 92-2. 97-3. as far as hispanics are concerned, republican presidents like george bush and ronald reagan have done very, very well with hispanic voters because they are pro-family, entrepreneurial, generally pro-life. they come to america to work. this time, obama has done very well after promising that he would have an immigration bill, they realized wow, if we have an immigration bill, we kick away that issue. but they didn't do what they said they were going to do. they didn't even try to pass an immigration bill because they wanted to keep the political issue and the polling indicates that they're going to do very well among latinos and largely because of not doing what they said they're going to do. >> we have to go. thank you very much, governor and governor. >> we'll be right back. the milln who have used androgel 1%,

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tens of thousands of get out the vote volunteers are waking up early this morning.

bill plante has a look inside both campaigns. >> reporter: for both parties, this is what it's all about, actually getting people to vote. the candidates may be the inspiration, but it's the campaigns that work at making it happen. jim messina is the tech savvy ceo of the billion-dollar obama campaign. he gave us his first ever tv interview in the final hours before the polls opened. are you nervous? >> i get paid to worry. the campaign manager spends all his time worrying. >> reporter: what are your nerves like? let me see your fingernails. >> they're not bitten. i will admit to some sleepless nights of late, but more about the unknown. i get paid to worry about everything. >> reporter: you mean moments like the denver debate, for example? >> that was one. but even after that debate, we understood the choice in this election. >> reporter: messina is confident, because while the president has been making his loop around the swing states, messina's ground game, thousands of volunteers and paid staffers have been working nonstop,

knocking on doors, making phone calls and getting people to vote early. messina claims his army knocked on 5.2 million doors over last weekend. trying to tip the balance in their favor. >> tomorrow we're going to have more people vote than people expect. >> with only hours to go, obama's headquarters team still projects energy and urgency. >> reporter: and what kind of p pad does this ground game give you? >> a point or two. in a battleground state as close as some of these states could be, that could be the difference here. >> reporter: confidence is also running high at romney headquarters in boston. their candidate they say is closing strong. >> we feel really good. we've seen this excitement across the country. we think that we have the enthusiasm and the wind at our back. >> reporter: the campaign is encouraged by the huge crowds that have turned out for romney rallies and energized volunteers

that have flocked to campaign offices across the country. governor romney is well within striking distance of the president, they say, and on election day, the campaign will activate a sophisticated system for tracking their get out the vote efforts. >> we're going to have 800 people here in boston who are taking incoming calls from the 22 to 25,000 people that we have out in the states and what they're going to be receiving is information on who has voted and what precinct and what target state. >> reporter: at obama headquarters, i asked messina what he thought of his opponents. has their campaign done anything more successfully than yours? >> we're about to find out on tuesday. it's all about tuesday. someone's going to be right and someone's going to be wrong, and i think we're going to be right. >> reporter: in the end, both campaigns told us the same thing. it's razor-edge close and most voters have already decided. so today, it all comes down to how effective each camp could be in getting its supporters out to vote. for "cbs this morning," this is

a long, costly and bitter campaign is over. this morning, the election is up to you. the voters. john dickerson and major garrett will help us sort out this very tight presidential race on "cbs this morning." i look at her, and i just want to give her everything.

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it is eight avm welcome back to "cbs this morning" on election day. americans are lining up to vote. two candidates and a nation could be waiting long into the night to find out who wis the next president. california voters face a tough choice at the poll today. raise taxes or get hit with massive budget cuts. it's an issue that would have nationwide ramifications. but first, here's a look at what's happening in the world and what we have been covering here on "cbs this morning." >> after all the rallies, after the millions of dollars of ads, it all comes down to you. >> this is the day when voters

choose the next president of the united states. >> early voting has really been key to the obama campaign strategy. they are leading in the early vote in almost every battleground state. >> one day away from a fresh start. one day away from the first day of a new beginning. >> i talked to a top campaign ad last night. he said romney was confident and that they're feeling good. >> the election may be already over, actually, and we don't know it. >> it's going to be a narrow race. we're even or ahead in nearly every one of these battleground states. >> you know the governor like i do, he's not someone to sit around until the job is done. >> the nor'easter is sure to make life harder for sandy's victims in new york and new jersey. >> how is it at night? >> freezing. there's no heat, there's nothing. >> i think barack obama is going to get re-elected. i'm sure governor barber agrees with that. >> i'm trying to keep a straight face. >> are you nervous? >> i get paid the worry. the campaign manager spends all his time worrying. >> let me see your fingernails. >> the americans will elect a new leader and then we can all

go home for thanksgiving to fight about it. i'm charlie rose with gayle king and norah o'donnell. at least 120 million americans are expected to vote this election day. polls are opening across the country. this morning, it is expected to be late tonight or tomorrow before who we'll know who the new president will be. >> one poll this morning has governor mitt romney ahead by one percentage point. another has the race in a dead heat. a third shows president obama leading by three percentage points. the president is in his hometown of chicago this morning. nancy cortis is there inside his campaign headquarters. good morning, nancy. >> reporter: good morning to you. the president arrived on air force one at about 2:00 in the morning after one final late night campaign rally in des moines, iowa. his campaign speech, which has remained relatively consistent over these past few weeks, really took a veer toward the

personal last night, as he talked about opening up his first campaign office in des moines about five years ago. it had no heat. the volunteers had to wear hats and gloves in the beginning just the make phone calls. he thanked people who went door to door with him when people didn't even know thousand pronounce his name. they helped propel him to that surprise victory in the iowa caucuses, which ended up leading to the presidency. he told those folks he needs their support again today if he's going to claim four more years. he's waking up in his own bed, in his own townhouse this morning in chicago. he has a tradition of playing a pickup basketball game with friends and aides. at some point, he'll come here to deliver what he hopes will be a victory speech. >> than circumstance thanks. we now go to the boston suburb of belmont, massachusetts, the home of governor mitt romney. jan crawford is there and joins us with that part of the story. good morning to you, jan. >> good morning, gayle. think about this. 17 months of campaigning for mitt romney and a hard-fought primary, a bruising general

election battle and today, in a few minutes, he and his wife ann are going to arrive here and vote like two of those 120 million americans that charlie mentioned a few minutes ago. one of the things the campaign feels good about today is intensity and enthusiasm. remember in that first debate in early october, that changed the dynamics of this race, and we saw it in the campaign events that we went to. people started really becoming enthusiastic about mitt romney. it showed up in the polls. he took the lead nationally but then came hurricane sandy and that seemed to have stalled romney's mum. the campaign believes they have it back. they think they've got the numbers on their side. and in the polls, they do not believe president obama can replicate what he did in 2008 in that historic election. >> jan crawford, thank you. florida is the biggest swing state and one of the most important. it could go either way.

elaine, where have the candidates been focusing in florida lately? >> reporter: good morning to you, norah, gayle, and charlie. the i-4 corridor, the all-important area along interstate 4 between tampa and orlando is where 43% of florida's voters live. now, it's pretty evenly split between republicans and democrats. however, there is also a large group of independents. that is why we have seen them come to this area many times over the last few months. another area that they're focusing on, trying the court votes, is among hispanic voters. however, it is far from a monolithic group. you look at the numbers, though, they are certainly a political force here. some 1.6 million latino registered voters here in the state of florida. but again, it's a mix. the largest group, about a third of hispanic voters are of cuban desce descecen

decent. both campaigns are trying the reach out aggressively to that group. >> thank you very much. in 2008, barack obama won the state of wisconsin by 14 points. the race this year is predicted to be much closer. chip reid is in madison, wisconsin. chip, good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you. someone just poked his head out the door behind me and said hear ye, hear ye, the polls are now open. they are expecting a massive turnout in wisconsin. this may be the most bitterly polarized state in the nation because of that ferociously angry recall battle earlier this year in which democrats led by unions failed to remove the tea party supported republican governor. now, four years ago, barack obama won in a landslide here, 56 to 42. this time the polls are showing it a very close race. 49-46 for the president in the most recent poll and that is within the margin of error. one reason the president has struggled here is because while the unemployment rate is below the national average, it has

been trending upward in recent months and that has given mitt romney a very powerful attack line. but it's all going to be about turnout in the end. paul ryan is hoping they are battle tested on both sides. >> john dickerson is with us, as well as major garrett. we begin with this question. if governor romney does not win ohio, how does he get to 270? >> it's tough. >> it's difficult. >> it's a tough road. let's do it. let's give the 18 electoral votes to president obama. that would get president obama to 255. basically then mitt romney has to almost run the table. he has about 11 paths to the presidentsy. so let's give him virginia, north carolina with its 15. we'll give him the big granddad granddaddy, 29 of florida. he's still not there. yet. we'll give him wisconsin at ten. still not there yet. colorado at nine. still not there yet.

he then could get new hampshire. that would be the fastest non-ohio route. he could also get nevada or iowa. that's one, two, three, four, five, six states he would have to win if he loses ohio. >> how many of those six states is he behind today according to the poll? >> well, of course he's -- it's tied in virginia. he's behind in wisconsin. tied in new hampshire. he's ahead in north carolina. nevada and iowa, which would be crucial to that last piece, tied in colorado. >> which is why the governor is going to ohio today. he's going to northern ohio, cleveland, and then he's going to western pennsylvania, which is covered in southern ohio. so the pennsylvania visit is not so much about pennsylvania. it is a little bit about it, but it's about getting both media markets at the top and bottom of ohio. >> how common is it to campaign on election day and how effective is it? >> remember al gore in 2000. al gore went all around this country campaigning at the very last minute. george w. bush took that day off and the day before largely off. al gore's late surge made that a very close election, as we all

remember. >> it's more a sign that i'm coming that's important than i'm here, which is to say you don't want to get in the way of people trying to vote, but you want to say look at me, i'm pulling out every stop to make sure i'm out here campaigning. so you go through the same kind of effort to get out the door and vote. >> voting is about emotion, right? and how you feel about the candidates. but it's also a science, as we know. so it's both of these things and turning out the vote. i'm particularly obsessed with the early vote and it says a lot about how america is changing. we all complain about how we have to wait in lines, it takes a long time. tonight people are voting early. almost four out of ten people in america will have already voted. if you look state by state, the numbers out this morning, north carolina, almost 63% already voted. colorado, 70%. more republicans than democrats in colorado. what about this early vote? i mean, how important do you think it is, major? >> well, it's very important for the obama perspective, the romney campaign believes its day of vote will swamp whatever

advantages the obama campaign has. here's what the obama campaign believes. not only do they put people in who voted, but they can recycle them as volunteers. if you voted, you become part of the get out the vote day. just think about this. in nevada, one state. 11,200 hours have been signed up for today to do get out the vote operations. in florida, it's 168,000 hours of volunteer time that obama workers will do just to get out the vote today. >> but then, john, also, isn't it true that obama is underperforming in some states in the early vote from 2008? >> he can underperform 2008 and still win. the question is how are republicans performs? they are in the early vote. the two key questions are turnout for republicans on election day and did democrats cannibalize their own vote. they have said absolutely not, that the entire purpose of early

voting is to find those people who are not constantly enthusiastic about voting, get them to vote early and then your regulars vote on election day. >> 2008 was an unusual year. >> very unusual year. huge trough of republican enthusiasm, an enormous boost for democrats. we're not going to see 2008. we see something much more along the lines of 2004. >> mitt romney is running ahead of john kerry where john kerry was in 2004. mitt romney is running behind where george w. bush was in

california's prop 30 could be a game changer for that state and others. governor jerry brown tells us why a tax hike is the only way to avoid massive budget cuts. you're watching "cbs this morning." we'll be back right after the break. hey buddy, i bet mom would love this, huh? jack? jaaack? jaaack?! jack?! looks good ladies! jack! come on, stop the car. jack! no, no, no, no, no! the only thing more surprising than finding the perfect gifts.. niice. ...is where you find them. how did you know? i had a little help. this is how to gift. this is sears. so ditch the brown bag for something better.

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>> reporter: i'm chris stanford in minnesota, where two controversial questions are fueling what is expected to be the largest voter turnout in the country today. one of the ballot questions would require voter i.d. at the polls. the other would strengthen the state's ban on gay marriage. there is a concern that redistricting could bog down the system today. many people here are voting somewhere different than four years ago. here four polling places were eliminated. however, so far, so good today. in minnesota, chris stanford for "cbs this morning." in california, no issue is drawing more cash or controversy than proposition 30. that ballot question would raise taxes to prevent massive education budget cuts. >> reporter: this is about the people choosing on or off.

money into our schools or money out of our schools. it's really stark. >> reporter: california governor jerry brown says without more money for schools, the california dream is over. >> the california dream is basically built on great public schools and colleges and universities. >> reporter: this is a tough sell, though, because you're asking people to voluntarily tax themselves. >> i've looked at the budget. i've cut $20 billion. if the people don't want to give the money, i can understand that. but we then can't spend what we don't have. >> reporter: brown's proposition 30 would increase the state's sales tax by a quarter percent and raise income tax rates on people making more than $250,000. >> vote yes on proposition 30. let's go! let's win. >> reporter: the current state budget assumes prop 30 will pass, so if it fails, $6 billion in education cuts automatically go into effect. that could shrink the school year by up to three weeks. >> reporter: some of your opponents believe that if this fails you will find a

work-around. that you're not willing to cut education by $6 billion. >> if i could find it somewhere else, i would have found it. i don't do this because i have a lot of alternatives. it will be pretty drastic. >> reporter: the long beach school district would face $35 million in cuts on top of the $330 million it has cut since 2008. nearly 1,000 teach verse lost their jobs and four schools closed. joe carlson is the co-principal of long beach polly high school. >> the fat is trimmed and we are to the point where we are going to have to go into the marrow here. >> reporter: his school may use its music, art, and school programs. john kupal is with the no on 30 campaign. >> prop 30 would give us the highest income tax rate, the highest sales tack rate, which we already have, by the way, so we think it would inflict horrible damage on the california economy. >> it's all smoke and mirrors.

>> reporter: out of state anti-tax troops have helped fund a war chest to fight prop 30. these opponents question if the tax money will really go to schools. they also say raising the tax rate as high as 10% is bad policy. >> asking for a massive tax increase without reform and without addressing waste fraud and abuse is a failure on their part. >> reporter: the yes on 30 campaign has raised more than $69 million, but heading into today's vote, support was below 50%. the threshold prop 30 needs to pass. for "cbs this morning," ben tracy, los angeles. >> and voters in just a few critical states may decide who will be the next president of the united states. we'll look at three bat groutled contests and what's driving voters in your state. you're watching "cbs this morning." we'll be back right after the break.

both campaigns are making a huge push, folks, because they know it all comes down to one thing. >> is it all going to be about voter turnout? >> yes, here and most of the other battleground states. >> voter turnout is going to mean everything. >> it all comes down to turnout. >> it really all boils down to home voters turn out. >> a lot of technical jargon in

there. let me break it down for you. the candidate who has more voters is going to win. that is the best analysis cable news has done since the six-part cnn series, "bears, do they [ bleep ] in the woods." welcome back to "cbs this morning." on this election day, we're looking at what could happen today and in the next four years. >> with us now are newt guy ritchie and dee dee myers. good morning to both of you. >> good morning. >> mr. speaker, before the hurricane you were predicting that governor romney would win in a landslide with over 300 electoral votes. do you think that's still true? >> well, i like your opening because i do think it comes down to turnout. i do think the guy that gets more votes today is going to probably win. so i thought that was good of you guys to package it like

that. interestingly, michael barone and dick morris also agree, and karl rove is not quite as bullish, but he's close. i think that romney is going to win. i think that the presidents get the last poll number. he's at 47. obama is at 47. gallup, he's at 48. rasmussen he's at 48. that suggests to me somewhere between 51-49, which is i think where rove is, to 53-47, which is where i am. so at 53-47, romney will carry over 300 electoral votes. >> dee dee, i assume you quote different sources in your analysis of the way this is going? >> i don't spend a lot of time quoting dick morris and karl rove when i'm doing my analysis. i agree it's all going to come down to turnout and i think that the obama campaign from the very beginning of this race has made an argument that they were going to focus on winning in the battleground states. you have to keep in mind, almost half of voters have already gone

to the polls in those states and the president is leading by a substantial margin. romney will have to make up a lot of ground if he's going to win in the key battleground states. i think that there's been a slight edge to the president's numbers in the last few days and i think when you add the turnout operation on top of that i think he has a slight edge. but it's been a long time since we've been sitting here on election morning where we all agree that anything is possible. >> but the democrats are banking on this early vote. if that early vote is down from 2008 and you know that republican enthusiasm is up from 2008 from john mccain, so does that factor in how many people are going to turn out on the republican side? >> well, i think that more people are going to vote in this election than voted in 2008, so i think it will be record turnout. but the numbers have been good. the numbers have been strong in the key states among the obama voters. they've registered a lot more people than the republicans, particularly in recent months

and turned out those low propensity voters, people who were first-time voters in 2008, and that means today they can focus on the regular voters, the democrats that always turn out and make sure that they get to the polls and get to the lines and all that. so i think that again, there's a turnout advantage for the president, both because of organization, because of what's already happened. >> is the big unknown in this election the intensity of the voters for the president, the urban intensity of someone? >> yeah, and the speakler have a different view of this, but i think there's a lot more intensity among democrats and obama supporters than is being reported. my first call pain was 1984 way back in the day, and vice president mondale was running against president reagan. on the week before the election, they did a rally -- mondale did a rally in new york. 100,000 people turned out. so i've always been suspicious of crowd size. you've got to look at other metrics like who's actually turning out.

i think that favors the president right now. >> mr. speaker, we can tell a lot, though from where the candidates go in these final days. mitt romney is going to campaign today in pennsylvania and ohio, try not to leave any votes on the table. specifically in ohio, he's going to the cleveland area, which is a democratic stronghold. why there? >> well, i think first of all, if i saw your map -- i was looking over dee dee's shoulder towards the monitor down here. you've added pennsylvania as a swing state. that is a big change. i think it's an accurate change. i think the democrats may well lose a senate seat there to a coal executive from western pennsylvania where the war on coal is a big issue. remember that in eastern ohio, the war on coal is also a big issue in the river valley, so by going to pittsburgh today, romney gets both states' media attention. by going to cleveland, he appeals basically to a large european community. cleveland was the second largest hungarian city in the world after budapest.

it is a very large polish-american city, a very large italian-american city. i suspect what he's trying to do is appeal to the collar precincts of the suburbs, which are now essentially second and third generation europeans who are very, very conservative in their religious values and very conservative in their attitude towards patriotism and towards the work ethics. so my guess is he's trying to offset the city of cleveland with the rest of cuyahoga county and the others. eight or nine battleground states are expected to

in dallas texas, voters are just now starting to show up at the polls. the presidential candidates didn't spend any time in texas in the final days of the campaign because the state is

considered a red state. but there are some tight c congressional races. it's brisk out this morning, but the weather will not be a factor today. we are expecting clear skies and a high of 75. finally election day, we get to vote. when we talk about the swing states in this election, we're not just talk about ohio. right now, we want to focus on three states that could really go either way, starting with nevada. anna werner is in las vegas. >> reporter: nevada helped the republicans in 2000 and 2004, voting for george w. bush. but in 2008, barack obama hit the jackpot here, beating john mccain by a whopping 12 percentage points. he's looking for a second big win, a second time around here in this state. the democrats are powered here by organized labor and a latino

vote that's now 15% of the total. they've been out knocking on doors, registering new voters, and there are now 90,000 more democrats registered in nevada than republicans. republicans, on the other hand, are trying to make inroads by promising to do better on the economy. nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 11.8% and one of the highest home foreclosure rates. those are facts that the romney-ryan team is trying to bring home. the most important factor for today's election is likely to be the hispanic turnout. in early balloting, it's gone heavily democratic. that's good news for the president. if those hispanic numbers are big enough, they might help power a u.s. senate democrat candidate to victory. back to you. four years ago, the obama campaign surprised many people by winning virginia. the state is a toss-up again this year. wyatt andrews is in sterling, a suburban area west of

washington, d.c. wyatt, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. we're at the forest grove elementary school precinct here in sterling, virginia. this is a swing precinct, swing county all in the swing state of virginia. why do we say that? because four years ago, this precinct and hundreds like it gave president barack obama 54% of the vote, turned around the very next year and gave republican governor bob mcdonnell 59% of the vote. that means what the voters here behind me decide tonight could be the story of the election. both sides, of course, say it's all about ground game today. the personal contacts, the phone calls, the ride to the polls that will make all the difference. republicans admit they were crushed by the president's ground game four years ago. that won't happen again, they say. both sides are claiming 20 million personal voter contacts, enough to contact every single virginia voter four times. to win tonight, both sides also tell me they need to increase the margins where they are strong.

for the romney campaign, that means senior citizens, white voters. for the president, minority and women voters. once again here, turnout and the numbers count. >> all right, wyatt andrews, thank you for that. moments ago, we saw governor mitt romney arriving at a polling place there in belmont, massachusetts, his hometown, to cast his ballot for himself as president of the united states joined there by his wife ann romney. now we go across the country to colorado where another close race is expected. barry peterson is in littleton, a denver suburb. a lot of early votes there in colorado. >> reporter: a lot. we're here in arapahoe county, which could determine how colorado goes tonight. you can see the ballot boxes here. and you see people -- we watched them dropping off their ballots as the morning has gone along. arapahoe is a third republican, a third independent, a third democrat. in 2008, it went for obama.

56%. mccain about 43%. there's been a statewide door to door push to get hispanic voters out. they respect about 9% of colorado voters, enough to tip the election. colorado's also an early voting state. so far, we're told 50% as of this morning have voted, and that's -- those totals will be released tonight when the polls close at about 7:00 p.m. mountain time. we'll have a good chance to see how things are going then. back to you. >> very interesting, barry. thank you. no matter what happens tonight, the next president is sure to have a major impact in other countries. including china. as bill whittaker reports, many chinese have been following the campaign very, very closely. >> reporter: in this bitterly close race, about the only thing president barack obama and governor mitt romney seem to agree on is a harder line toward china on trade and jobs. >> we are going to insist that china plays by the same rules as everybody else. >> and day one, i will label

china a currency manipulator. >> it's aimed at an american audience, but the internet and satellite tv, china is watching, too. >> will the next u.s. president antagonize china or continue to engage with beijing? >> reporter: few follow more closely. he's the english language voice of china's state-run tv. >> all the chinese media, if you look at the front page stories, they talk about how the two presidential candidates accuse china, bash china. >> reporter: millions of young chinese also are hooked on the american election. we met three self-proclaimed political junkies. a journalist and two students. do you hear china bashing? >> everyone owns the iphone and the ipad, but without chief labor supplies in china, how can they produce them in such a low price?

it's impossible. >> reporter: they are not getting their information from the official voices on state tv. they're getting it mostly unfiltered from the internet. >> we just want to know what's happening on the other side of the world. >> on the internet, people can get their own access. >> reporter: this 29-year-old english teacher down loads and translates political speeches and shares them on the internet. his convention down loads got hundreds of millions of hits. his online followers don't like all the criticism of china, but they do like the openness of the american system. >> the american system is open, energetic. >> at least they can fight for their own interests. at least they can fight for the people. >> reporter: he doesn't speak for the communist party of china, but as a member, he knows the party line. >> the u.s. democracy is very beautiful. it's charming. but it has many shortcomings,

weaknesses. >> reporter: the american voters get to go up and actually poke the guy who wants to be president of the united states and ask him a pointed question. what are you going to do for me? the chinese people don't get a chance to do that with their leaders. >> i respect the american political system. but why china prospered after the financial meltdown is because of the effective leadership that we exercised. >> reporter: two days after americans choose a president, china's communist party chooses new leaders for this country. the chinese people won't have a vote. for "cbs this morning," i'm bill whittaker in beijing. in the past few days, the candidates have been all over the swing states, and so has republican strategist frank lutz. this morning, he's with us, waiting to come on deck. he'll tell us what he's learned and what he predicts when "cbs this morning" continues.

i'm janet kim at a national polling location. this is the first presidential polling station in tennessee where you'll need the photo i.d. before you cast a ballot. also worth noting, if today is anything like what we saw in early voting, the state should see a pretty strong turnout, more than 1.4 million ballots were cast during early voting and election officials say that's the second highest early voting total in tennessee history. now, the u.s. department of justice has announced that it's going to be making visits at polling sites here in davidson county and shelby county just to monitor those general election procedures. something voters will have to watch out for. i'm janet kim in nashville for "cbs this morning." republican strategist frank

lutz has been a very busy man in the past 72 hours. >> he just travelled to five of the swing states that could determine the election. frank, good morning. >> good morning. i don't know who's more tired, the voters or more. >> so at the end of the day, what's going to be the biggest story? >> i think that we're going to spend $6 billion overall on all of politics, including $2 billion on this presidential campaign. all of this money on house and senate races. i think the republicans in the house will lose a seat or two. democrats in the senate may even break even. that it is a 50/50 shot for barack obama's return. think of how much money, how much was spent and the e moegts a -- emotion and the yelling and the frustration to have a status quo election. >> do you believe that barack obama will be re-elected? >> i still see mitt romney having the most narrow of popular vote advantages, and i can't call ohio. nobody can. if you're a professional and do your job correctly and take the

partisanship out of it, ohio is just too close to call. and that determines the election. >> let's talk about the voters for a second. we talked about the speeches, the polls, the numbers, the swing states, the candidates. what are you hearing from the voters? how are they feeling today? >> well, first, thank you for doing that, because the american people are frustrated with all these polling numbers. what they want, threefold. number one is a plan for jobs. a real plan that's specific. it gets people back to work. number two, the deaf sismt the debt. they don't want washington spending as much as they do. number three, they want everyone to get along and do the job. right now, they're not seeing anything on either of those. >> what's influencing the most, the debate? >> the debates. mitt romney would not be in this race if not for the first debate. if mitt romney should win tonight or tomorrow, he will have won not because of millions and billions in advertising, he will have won because of a debate performance. that's substance.

that's what people should watch about this election cycle. >> it's incredible to me that we have that much frustration in the electorate and that much money, and this won't be a change election, which 2008 was. even the mid-terms in 2010 were a change election. how does that compute? how does that turn out that way? if barack obama is not voted out of office, then why does that happen that way, if there's that feeling of frustration? >> because we're a divided country. we really are 50/50. 1/3 are republicans, 1/3 are democrats, 1/3 are independents, but in the end, we break down 50/50 and that's the way we're going to be. >> a long night, yes or no? >> i may be watching you in the same suit and tie tomorrow morning. >> well, you look nice. >> but in the end, voters are just hoping that someone is listening to them this time. >> thank you very much. cbs news will have complete coverage of election night anchored by scott pelley.

our coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. >> that does it for us. up next, your local news. we'll see you tomorrow on "cbs this morning" with m